Search results for "Extinction probability"
showing 3 items of 3 documents
Conservation of the Grey Bush Cricket Platycleis albopunctata (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae) Under Differing Habitat Conditions: Implications From an In…
2009
Assessing the chance of survival of any species is a great challenge in conservation biology. In this chapter, we analyse the vulnerability of the grey bush cricket Platycleis albopunctata in habitats of different food availability under current and increased temperature conditions applying an individual-based model. Our simulations show that populations in warmer habitats with a higher food limitation have a much lower extinction risk than those living in habitats that are less food-limited and colder. An increase in mortalities of life stages severely increases the risk of population extinction, whereas a shift in the termination of egg diapause towards the beginning of the year caused by…
Estimation of local extinction rates when species detectability covaries with extinction probability: is it a problem ?
2006
Estimating the rate of change of the composition of communities is of direct interest to address many fundamental and applied questions in ecology. One methodological problem is that it is hard to detect all the species present in a community. Nichols et al. presented an estimator of the local extinction rate that takes into account species probability of detection, but little information is available on its performance. However, they predicted that if a covariance between species detection probability and local extinction rate exists in a community, the estimator of local extinction rate complement would be positively biased. Here, we show, using simulations over a wide range of parameters…
The use of Markovian metapopulation models: Reducing the dimensionality of transition matrices by self-organizing Kohonen networks
2006
Abstract Markovian population models are used in conservation biology to find an accurate estimate of a population's extinction probability. Such models require handling of large transition matrices and calculations are thus extremely time-consuming when large populations have to be studied. To accomplish these problems, some authors have suggested to group together several states/sizes of the population. Unfortunately, this so-called binning frequently results in errors in estimates obtained. The main problem with binning is that it assumes that grouped states behave nearly identical with respect to the underlying stochastic population process and that so far binning methods implicitly vio…